Enrollment estimates just don’t add up

Looks as if the Morgan County School Board should spend a little time studying the projected enrollment figures for local public schools over the next decade. They may need some revision.

The figures are part of the 10-year facilities plan that the board recently approved and submitted to the state. Not only are there a few math errors in the consultant’s work, but the numbers don’t always make sense.

The expected enrollment is important since it’s central to planning for schools in the future. The numbers also tip off the Morgan County Planning Commission about population trends. Future school needs have been brought up in the zoning debate over impact fees.

The board’s estimates show there are 2,963 “potential” students for the 2010-2011 school year, with enrollment projected to be 2,819 in October when the official count is made. We assume the difference is the number of home schoolers, kids in private schools and dropouts.

Thing is, last year there were 2,968 potential students and only 2,655 enrolled, so we’re not sure where this year’s increase will come from. Same issue arises in the 2018-2019 school year. In eight years, they expect only 20 more school-age residents, but predict more than 180 additional public school students.

The only school predicted to see a significant increase over the next eight years is Widmyer Elementary – gradually increasing from 575 last year to 684 in the fall of 2018. Yet, you have to wonder where those kids go after second grade since enrollments at the Berkeley Springs intermediate, middle and high schools are all predicted to decline by then.

The real point is, it’s hard to put much faith in the projected enrollments. It’s not even clear whether Morgan County’s population in general has continued to increase through the recession. A better picture will emerge once the new census figures are available next spring.

Last year, there were only 158 more students in local schools than a decade ago, despite the population growth that everyone seemed to feel. Enrollment in Morgan County hit a high of 2,719 students three years ago and has declined since.

If enrollment numbers are as flat as they look, the school board will have a struggle trying to convince the public that more and more tax dollars are needed in the future.